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(David Oualaalou, Board of Contributors- Kurdistan could be next battleground for jihadists, West)
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Conventional wisdom suggests that a war conducted from the air is unlikely to achieve its objective. In the case of ISIS, the air campaign might limit its progress in acquiring more territories but will not lead to its defeat. In fact, it could make it very challenging to dislodge ISIS from the region. As it stands, unconfirmed reports suggest the possibility of ground attacks following a barrage of air strikes by F-18s, <a href=http://www.radiorcs.com/page.php?sale=Kate-Spade-Wallet>Kate Spade Wallet</a> which paved the way for the Kurdish force known as the Peshmerga to gain ground. However, what U.S. news media fail to report, ignorantly or conveniently, is that the Peshmerga is not a structured military force (at least by our standards). It is poorly equipped, not well-trained and lacks advanced weapons.
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Be that as it may, the West headed by the United States is rushing to declare victory since many Yazidis were able to flee to safety in the face of certain death and submission by ISIS fighters. While that should please all of us, this gain might not amount to much in the long run. U.S. military assistance in terms of weapons for the Peshmerga troops might not necessarily help crush ISIS dead because the latter continues to occupy large swaths of land inside Iraq and Syria. As a result, ISIS will continue to present a real threat to both Iraq and the Kurdistan region as long as the central government in Baghdad continues to marginalize Sunnis and limit their participation in real governance.
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Now that a new prime minster has been appointed to replace the failed al-Maliki administration, I鈥檓 eager to see whether successor Haider al-Abadi will be inclusive when forming his government 鈥?or follow in the disastrous footsteps of his predecessor, who only managed to create rifts between his fellow Shiites and rival Sunnis.
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The fear now is that ISIS, once U.S. air strikes stop, will simply overrun the Peshmerga as it did the 2nd and 3rd Iraqi divisions, in the process confiscating most, if not all, the weapons the United States has provided the Kurds. Should this scenario become a reality, the Kurdish region will become a battleground for jihadists of different ideologies against the United States. That in turn could lead warmongers in Washington to <a href=http://www.alportico.net/page.php?sale=True-Religion-Denim-Jacket>True Religion Denim Jacket</a> lobby for a full-scale war, a proposition that would be devastating to our country given all the unresolved social issues we face: immigration, the economy, national debt and education, among others.
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Given all this volatility and uncertainty in the region, I can understand President Obama鈥檚 reluctance to commit U.S. ground forces to the conflict.
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It鈥檚 important to understand that when Iraq鈥檚 borders were drawn up back in 1920 as part of the Sykes-Picot agreement between the United Kingdom and France, crucial considerations were overlooked. Indeed, the objective then was to divide rather than unite. The consequences continue to this day.
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What the United States must understand is that local public opinion in Iraq <a href=http://www.radiorcs.com/page.php?sale=New-Jimmy-Choo-Perfume>Jimmy Choo Wedding Shoes</a> matters in issues pertaining to national identity, religious affiliation, sovereignty and self-determination. The U.S. needs to refrain from making hasty decisions and jumping into yet another war in the region.
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The U.S. also needs to remember that the region has always been held together by despotic rule, which is not the case anymore. Consequently, the U.S. government must proceed cautiously to avoid being dragged into a conflict that will likely widen within days and weeks. In the midst of all this chaos, I find it interesting Iran did not issue a statement condemning U.S. intervention in the region. Against all odds, Iran is taking advantage of the conflict to serve its own strategic interests and support its regional aspirations while paving the way for better cooperation 鈥?a rapprochement, if you will, a strategy I strongly believe Iran鈥檚 archenemy, Saudi Arabia, is frowning upon.
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David Oualaalou served in the U.S. Army Intelligence Corps and was also an international security analyst. He has worked in support of U.S. government foreign policy initiatives for many years and in many countries. He serves on the faculty at McLennan Community College.
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