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(Hard math subtracts from Jay's batting crown chances - Sports)
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CINCINNATI聽鈥?There were scouts and coaches who saw a young Jon Jay enter the Cardinals organization and believed he had the approach and the level swing 鈥?even with those 鈥渉elicopter hands鈥?鈥?to someday win a battle title, most likely in the minors. Jay has ditched the butter-churning trigger he had at the beginning of his swing, and he鈥檚 made it more compact, quicker, and he鈥檚 only increased his ability to be considered a .300 hitter.That鈥檚 enough to take a run at the batting title in this year鈥檚 NL.The numbers are stacked against him. His numbers.Jay went one-for-three with two walks during Monday鈥檚 victory at Great American Ball Park, and the plate appearances as much as the hit put him that much closer to qualifying for the 2014 batting race. Jay has hit .385 in September, and <a href=http://capstone.edu.sg/images/guccioutlet.onlinesalecc.php>Gucci Outlet Store</a> he鈥檚 batting .315 overall. That would put him in the top three in National League, clustered there with Justin Morneau (.316) and Josh Harrison (.315). But Jay doesn鈥檛 have enough plate appearances to rank. Due to the Cardinals鈥?time-share approach to the outfield for the first half of the season, Jay has 406 plate appearances. That is 40 shy of the total he would need to crack the leaderboard today.To be qualified for the batting title, a player needs 3.1 plate appearances per team game. A Cardinal, as of this morning, would need 446 plate appearances this season to rank with the other NL leaders.By the end of the season鈥檚 162 games, a player needs 502 plate appearances.To get there, Jay needs to average 5.33 plate appearances a game for the remaining 18 games. He had five plate appearances on Monday and it turn the Cardinals turning the lineup over and over in a 5-0 shutout to get him that many. Batting second more regularly will <a href=http://www.symbiose.ca/images/christianlouboutin.gwij.php>Christian Louboutin Sale</a> help, but it鈥檚 still a difficult gap to close.There is another way to win the title, however.Major League Baseball鈥檚 rules do permit a player to accept empty at-bats to cover the gap between his plate appearances and the minimum required for a batting title. If, say, a player has 495 plate appearances and a 15-point gap on the current leader, that player can accept a zero-for-seven added to his average and if he still leads he鈥檚 the batting champ. The other night in Milwaukee, I grabbed a napkin and did the math on what Jay is facing, even if he wants to take the zeroes to try and qualify.Let鈥檚 do some math!(Warning: Algebra was used in the research for this blog.)Over the final 19 games (including Monday鈥檚), Jay would have to average
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鈥?3.2 PA/G, as he has all season, to get 61 more plate appearances and finish with 462
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鈥?4.0 PA/G, ahead of his 鈥?4 pace, to get 76 extra plate appearances and finish with 477
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With 61 at-bats, he would need to take a zero-for-40 to qualify
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鈥?If he hits .508 (31-for-61), he鈥檇 finish with a .344 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .313
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鈥?If he hits .393 (24-for-61), he鈥檇 finish with a .326 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .298
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鈥?If he hits .311 (19-for-61), he鈥檇 finish with a .315 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .287
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With 76 at-bats, he would need to take a zero-for-25 to qualify
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鈥?If he hits .500 (38-for-76), he鈥檇 finish with a .348 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .329
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鈥?If he hits .394 (30-for-76), he鈥檇 finish with a .311 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .311
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鈥?If he hits .302 (23-for-76), he鈥檇 finish with a .313 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .296
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The above descriptions are simplified because they just accept that all of the plate appearances will be at-bats. That made the math easier.But, let鈥檚 assume he maintains his walk rate of about 6.5 percent.That gives him the plate appearances without dinging the average.With 61 plate appearances, that鈥檚 four walks. He鈥檇 be 40 PAs shy with 57 at-bats
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鈥?If he hits .508 (27-for-57), he鈥檇 finish with a .337 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .307
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鈥?If he hits .404 (23-for-57), he鈥檇 finish with a .327 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .298
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With 76 plate appearances, that鈥檚 five walks. He鈥檇 be 25 PAs shy with 71 at-bats
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鈥?If he hits .507 (36-for-71), he鈥檇 finish with a .347 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .321
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鈥?If he hits .394 (28-for-71), he鈥檇 <a href=http://capstone.edu.sg/images/gucciusaonlineoutlet.php>gucci outlet</a> finish with a .328 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .303
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That gives you a sense of the hard math facing Jay鈥檚 batting crown chances.He won鈥檛 have enough plate appearances to qualify outright for the title (unless a lot of extra-inning games are in the Cardinals鈥?future), so he needs to get as many plate appearances as possible and as many hits in those plate appearances as possible. All of these calculations and it鈥檚 just a simple matter of arithmetic. He cannot just finish ahead of the other NL hitters when it comes to average; he has to finish well ahead to overcome the empty at-bats he鈥檒l have to add.Through no fault of his production, the sum of his season will likely fall short.-30-
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