Difference between revisions of "User:RahalMccall69"

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(Legal questions arise for fantasy day game biz)
(The Real Reason Kevin Love is a Cavalier)
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Some of the newest incarnations of fantasy football look a lot more like gambling than intricate, outsmart-your-opponent strategy games.
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Congratulations, Cleveland! Kevin Love <a href=http://architectscanterbury.co.uk/page.php?sale=Kate-Spade-Shoulder-Bag>Kate Spade Uk Stockists</a>  will no doubt make this team a contender in ways  and never could. LeBron is still the world's best player, but his grasp on that title becomes more tenuous each year, and this places the Cavs in prime position for multiple Finals appearances over the next few years.
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Since 2011, the billion-dollar fantasy market has been infused with dozens of daily and weekly games. Those games allow players to win huge prizes quickly, sometimes in one week, sometimes in just one night. With players betting thousands or even tens of thousands a night, legal experts believe it's time to review the section of the 2006 federal law that was written specifically to protect fantasy sports from being banned the way online poker was.
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It was widely assumed that this trade happened because Kevin Love was leaving after the season and Minnesota needed to get something for him while they still held leverage. But Minnesota has turned over its coaching staff and general management - was this indeed Love's presumed course? And why would he leave the only NBA team to ever know him? I did some analysis on this before the trade was consummated and was shocked at the result. I'll post a summary, but the full analysis can be found .
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"There's importance in clarifying the law," says Marc Edelman, a professor at Fordham Law School who studies the law as it applies to fantasy sports. "As long as there's uncertainty about the legality of these games, some potential businesses that might enter the marketplace stay out."
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The reasons many give for Love's discontent in Minnesota have to do with the immortal David Kahn. But surely Kahn could not have been purposefully submarining his team? Some of his moves had to make some basketball sense. With regards to Kahn, there are two primary criticisms:
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Seasonal leagues are largely the domain of billion-dollar companies such as CBS and ESPN, with close ties to the NFL. <a href=http://capstone.edu.sg/images/guccioutlet.onlinesalecc.php>Gucci Outlet Store</a>  For now, they have remained on the sidelines of the short-term business, leaving it largely in the hands of companies such as FanDuel, which is expecting to triple its base to 500,000 fans this season.
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"We have the most popular fantasy football game going," said Kevin Ota of ESPN, which boasts an estimated 14 million fantasy players. "It's been incredibly successful, and we're focused on improving our game every year. We always keep our eye on opportunities to serve sports fans better."
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He was unable to build a winning team.
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ESPN officials say they have no immediate plans for weekly cash games.
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His unwillingness/failure to sign Love to a longer contract and then giving Love a 3-year out.
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Traditional leagues at ESPN and elsewhere received their legal clearance from the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, which was designed mainly to stop internet poker. It included an important "carve out" for fantasy football. Meanwhile, most state laws define fantasy football as skill-based propositions, which keeps them legal.
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Let's tackle them in order. One of Kahn's most infamous moments was the 2009 draft, in which he held 3 lottery picks and somehow turned them into one PG that has played less than 2 full seasons of sub-par PER to-date (Rubio), a PG that is no longer in the league (Flynn), and some worthless draft picks. Many people criticized the choice of Flynn over Steph Curry. Thing is, knowing that Rubio was going to stay in Spain for a season or two, Flynn doesn't look horrible in a vacuum. Here are his stats from his last college year compared to some other non-shooting point guards that have made an All-Star team in the last 5 seasons:
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"It's an easy <a href=http://www.alportico.net/gosoc.php>true religion jeans</a>  argument with season-long games because you exercise a great deal of skill in operating a team," said Las Vegas-based attorney Tony Cabot, who has practiced gambling law for three decades. "You have to figure out who to draft, play, trade and all those things to have a successful season. And because you're doing all that, you're betting on an outcome you can control."
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The day-game world can be much different and the skill level needed to "run" a team that exists for only one week is far lower than that for a season-long enterprise.
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And a growing number of fantasy sites have games that "look very much like prop bets or parlay cards," Cabot says, with some games as simple as paying an "entry" fee, then choosing who, between two players, will finish a certain day with more receiving yards.
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All numbers from  
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"It depends on how you run your game," Cabot said. "If you said, 'We're going to do fantasy, quick pick, random drafts,' I say, 'How can that be skill based?' But if it's a daily game where you're doing a draft, have the ability to change players halfway through the game and make all these decisions, then it's much closer to a traditional model."
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In 2007, Cabot co-authored a legal paper titled "Fantasy Sports: One Form of Mainstream Wagering in the United States." It offers a point-by-point deconstruction of the federal law that essentially legalized a growing industry that, to some, looks very much like gambling. One of Cabot's key points is that the NFL, seeing the revenue and viewership possibilities of fantasy football, hired a well-paid lobbyist who helped smooth the way for an imperfect bill to become law.
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Raise your hand if those stats shock you. Now look at these Wes Johnson numbers:
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Cabot's conclusion is that the process "ultimately has done a great disservice to reasoned policymaking and, potentially, to the long-term future of the fantasy sports industry itself."
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He counts the growing day-game business as one area especially <a href=http://www.alportico.net/prodotti/christianlouboutin-sale.jkmsw.php>Christian Louboutin Replica</a>  susceptible to confusion. Edelman agrees.
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"One can argue whether the fantasy sports carve out applies to the short-duration game, given that, at the time the (federal law) was passed, there was no such thing as daily fantasy sports," Edelman said.
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Wow. My issue isn't so much that Kahn took these players. It's what <a href=http://www.cicviseu.net/page.php?sale=Jimmy-Choo-Flats-On-Sale>Jimmy Choo Flats On Sale</a>  the did with them after they were rostered. Flynn was rushed back from injury, while Wes Johnson was buried behind a logjam at SF including , , and Andrei Kirilenko. This not to mention that the shooting Lawson was a better fit with the non-shooting Rubio in the first place.
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Day games didn't get much traction until 2011 鈥?five years after the law was passed.
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The games are pretty much unregulated, and they are exploding. They allow anyone over 18 to gamble on sports outcomes online, while traditional sports gambling is available online only in Nevada and, in some forms, in Delaware. The laws in the states take precedence over the federal law and they vary, most of them basing the legality of a game on how much of it is predicated on skill vs. chance. Last year, a federal court in Illinois dismissed a lawsuit alleging day games were games of chance.
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I'm not trying to pretend that Flynn and Johnson had All-Star potential when they were drafted. And certainly there were questions about their abilities when they were drafted (including the defensive potential of any player from Syracuse). But I can't kill David Kahn for these moves, and while his overall record as a GM is poor (, , Beasley, ), I don't think this was the real reason  relationship with the team was broken.
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A few of the bigger media players 鈥?most notably USA Today and Sports Illustrated 鈥?have gotten into the day-game business, seeing ample opportunity in an industry that drew an $11 million investment from Comcast Ventures, which plunked the money into FanDuel last year.
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Meanwhile, the NFL, which did not respond to questions emailed by The Associated Press, keeps watching the numbers swell, while walking the line between using fantasy football to grow its game and maintaining its long-held, hard-line stance against anything perceived as gambling.
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But not offering the guy a max contract? That was insanity. When the contract was done in January 2012, Kahn's response was that he was saving the team's max for this guy:
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"Part of the problem with entrepreneurial endeavors on the internet is that some people push the envelope and some cross the line," Cabot said. "Until there's some sort of enforcement action on some level, I think you'll see them keep pushing that line out further and further."
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I love Rubio's game and sincerely hope he turns into the player we think is hiding in there. But holy crap, those are some horrible numbers. He's never been league-average by PER and even the assist numbers may be inflated by how much the Wolves rely on his offense by virtue of no other good options. Meanwhile, Kevin Love was a 4th year player that rebounded like a banshee, played in the post, and developed a threatening 3-ball. In Year 3, he posted 20 points and 15 rebounds. Here is a list of players in the shot clock era that have done that by Year 3:
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That's 8 Hall of Famers, 7 members of the NBA's 50th Anniversary Team, and Kevin Love. And Love is the youngest to accomplish the feat. And Love can shoot 3's. How the Wolves look at that list and don't give Love a max is a tremendous failure of talent evaluation and a huge slight <a href=http://architectscanterbury.co.uk/page.php?sale=Rent-Louboutin-Shoes>Christian Louboutin Sale Uk</a>  to Love. That's why he left Minnesota. And that's why Cleveland is fortunate to have him.
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Again, see the full post .
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You make the calls. #YouMakeTheCalls #YMTC

Revision as of 03:09, 11 September 2014

@@@ Congratulations, Cleveland! Kevin Love <a href=http://architectscanterbury.co.uk/page.php?sale=Kate-Spade-Shoulder-Bag>Kate Spade Uk Stockists</a> will no doubt make this team a contender in ways and never could. LeBron is still the world's best player, but his grasp on that title becomes more tenuous each year, and this places the Cavs in prime position for multiple Finals appearances over the next few years. It was widely assumed that this trade happened because Kevin Love was leaving after the season and Minnesota needed to get something for him while they still held leverage. But Minnesota has turned over its coaching staff and general management - was this indeed Love's presumed course? And why would he leave the only NBA team to ever know him? I did some analysis on this before the trade was consummated and was shocked at the result. I'll post a summary, but the full analysis can be found . The reasons many give for Love's discontent in Minnesota have to do with the immortal David Kahn. But surely Kahn could not have been purposefully submarining his team? Some of his moves had to make some basketball sense. With regards to Kahn, there are two primary criticisms:

He was unable to build a winning team. His unwillingness/failure to sign Love to a longer contract and then giving Love a 3-year out. Let's tackle them in order. One of Kahn's most infamous moments was the 2009 draft, in which he held 3 lottery picks and somehow turned them into one PG that has played less than 2 full seasons of sub-par PER to-date (Rubio), a PG that is no longer in the league (Flynn), and some worthless draft picks. Many people criticized the choice of Flynn over Steph Curry. Thing is, knowing that Rubio was going to stay in Spain for a season or two, Flynn doesn't look horrible in a vacuum. Here are his stats from his last college year compared to some other non-shooting point guards that have made an All-Star team in the last 5 seasons: 


All numbers from 

Raise your hand if those stats shock you. Now look at these Wes Johnson numbers:


Wow. My issue isn't so much that Kahn took these players. It's what <a href=http://www.cicviseu.net/page.php?sale=Jimmy-Choo-Flats-On-Sale>Jimmy Choo Flats On Sale</a> the did with them after they were rostered. Flynn was rushed back from injury, while Wes Johnson was buried behind a logjam at SF including , , and Andrei Kirilenko. This not to mention that the shooting Lawson was a better fit with the non-shooting Rubio in the first place. 

I'm not trying to pretend that Flynn and Johnson had All-Star potential when they were drafted. And certainly there were questions about their abilities when they were drafted (including the defensive potential of any player from Syracuse). But I can't kill David Kahn for these moves, and while his overall record as a GM is poor (, , Beasley, ), I don't think this was the real reason  relationship with the team was broken.

But not offering the guy a max contract? That was insanity. When the contract was done in January 2012, Kahn's response was that he was saving the team's max for this guy:


I love Rubio's game and sincerely hope he turns into the player we think is hiding in there. But holy crap, those are some horrible numbers. He's never been league-average by PER and even the assist numbers may be inflated by how much the Wolves rely on his offense by virtue of no other good options. Meanwhile, Kevin Love was a 4th year player that rebounded like a banshee, played in the post, and developed a threatening 3-ball. In Year 3, he posted 20 points and 15 rebounds. Here is a list of players in the shot clock era that have done that by Year 3:


That's 8 Hall of Famers, 7 members of the NBA's 50th Anniversary Team, and Kevin Love. And Love is the youngest to accomplish the feat. And Love can shoot 3's. How the Wolves look at that list and don't give Love a max is a tremendous failure of talent evaluation and a huge slight <a href=http://architectscanterbury.co.uk/page.php?sale=Rent-Louboutin-Shoes>Christian Louboutin Sale Uk</a> to Love. That's why he left Minnesota. And that's why Cleveland is fortunate to have him.

Again, see the full post . 

You make the calls. #YouMakeTheCalls #YMTC
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