Difference between revisions of "User:RahalMccall69"

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(Is Flopping Effective or Does James Harden Suck-)
(What Does The Dallas Cowboys 0)
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Not so fast. Since realignment in 2002, 98 of the 144 playoff <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Cheap-Gucci-Outlet-Sunglasses-Men-For-Baby-Bamboo.html>Gucci Sunglasses Men</a>  teams won their season opener. But 46 teams made the playoffs after losing their season opener.
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Because of the brevity of the NFL season with just 16 games, every game carries an inordinate weight in determining a team's playoff odds. After just one week of play, the playoff odds have shifted significantly from the 37.5% all teams shared before kickoff weekend. Overall, 51% of the teams who have won their season opener since 2002 also made the playoffs (98 of 192 teams). Conversely, only 24% of the teams that lost their season opener eventually made the playoffs over the same period (46/192).
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Yet nothing is lost for teams like the , who stumbled out of the gate on opening weekend. Because the brevity of the NFL season also means that if <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Belts-Sale-Shorts-Ballet-Flats-Loafers.html>Gucci Belts Sale</a>  you string together a couple of wins, you'll be back in the thick of the playoff race. The image below shows how the playoff odds have developed over the last 12 seasons from Week 1 through Week 4:
  
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I was inspired to write this fanpost by a conversation started by BlogABull poster obnoxious american. He eloquently wrote
 
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harden sucks balls
 
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that is all
 
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This inspired a rather lengthy conversation about how Harden sucks, his beard sucks, his flopping <a href=http://www.radiorcs.com/page.php?sale=Kate-Spade-Noel-Alabaster>Kate Spade Wallet</a>  sucks, etc. However, some insisted (cough, Poloplaya14, cough) that his style of play is effective and until the NBA stops it, why criticize? It's a fair point. Harden dropped 25.4ppg on almost 62% TS%. The list of guards and small forwards who have accomplished the feat of 25ppg on 60+ TS% is small and . However, Harden has had little success in the playoffs in either of those two seasons in which he made that list (the same is true for Dantley). So, the question is: can Harden's style of play be successful in the playoffs?
 
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For this study, I decided to look at the leading scoring wing or point guard on every playoff team. Looking at post players would not make sense because I am interested in both free throw shooting and three pointers. Then, I will look at the percentage of their points scored off of 3 pointers and free throws, their TS%, and their pts/36 in the regular season, and compare their TS% and pts/36 in the playoffs.
 
  
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In principle, there's no reason why the Cowboys shouldn't be able to win their next couple of games, and climb back to 50% playoff odds by Week 3 with a 2-1 record. In principle.
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There's the chart I made sorted by percentage of scoring from the FT line and the 3 point arc. The opinions on better, same, or worse are my own. I gave Steph Curry the benefit of the doubt because the  seemed to play much, much slower in the playoffs, and Steph had an incredibly high TS% to begin with. As you can see, there doesn't seem to be a ton of correlation there. Not many players improve their scoring in the playoffs, but there seem to be plenty of players that can do well with this type of scoring come playoff time. I decided to take a different approach. This time, I decided to look only at percentage of points from the free throw line. Here is that same chart but with percentage of points from the free throw line instead.
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But that assumes that the Cowboys did indeed stumble out of the block on Sunday, and <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Cheap-Gucci-Handbags-Men-Wallets-Clothes-Cheap-Mens-Loafers.html>Gucci Men Wallets</a>  that their loss to the  is not indicative of a bigger issue. If it's the latter, then this chart has an ugly message: Another loss would drop the Cowboys' playoff odds to a little below one in 10, and three consecutive losses to start the season means we can start planning for next year.
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And I for one do not want to look at mock drafts in September.
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This one looks like it has a bit more correlation at first. Two of the worst drops are #1 and #2 in pts from the line. However, all of the rest are in the bottom half. Perhaps I am missing the point. Maybe it is not so much being reliant on free throws specifically as relying on flopping. It's my guess that guys who relied on getting to the line by flopping or throwing their weight around ineffectively would see a large drop in free throw rate in the playoffs. Let's look at that chart shorted by largest to smallest drop in free throw rate.
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Ok, so now we seem to be seeing a bit of a correlation. The only real outlier seems to be . To be fair, he played the followed by the . That's two awfully good defenses. Plus, that guy could not hit a midrange shot to save his soul. Still, I'm not sure this is quite enough <a href=http://www.alportico.net/page.php?sale=True-Religion-Clothing-Sale>True Religion Clothing Sale</a>  evidence to damn Harden's style of play, but I think it's clear that if you are heavily reliant on free throws to score, you better be able to continue drawing them at that same rate. The only guy that seemed immune to that problem was CP3. He scored a fairly high percentage of his points from the line, suffered a major drop in rate, and still managed to be efficient. However, he shot a ludicrously high 47% from 3 point land in the playoffs. I don't think he'll be able to count on that in the future.
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On a less analytical note, I watched a good portion of the NBA playoffs. Harden seemed to really be forcing his play much more so than in the regular season. While the guy is a flopper, he usually does a pretty good job of picking his spots to drive, which is why he gets so many calls. I thought he simply took worse shots and tried to play hero ball a bit too much. All in all, I don't know that there is enough evidence to say that flopping doesn't work. I found some evidence, but it is sketchy at best. Once the NBA cracks down on floppers at the offensive end a bit more, perhaps this will become more true. However, there is one thing that I did find and can say with certainty:  suffered a terribly drop in efficiency and scoring in the playoffs. So, even if I can't prove that flopping in general doesn't work, I <a href=http://www.radiorcs.com/page.php?sale=h-And-m-Jimmy-Choo>Cheap Jimmy Choo Shoes</a>  can say with enthusiasm: James Harden sucks (in the playoffs).
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Revision as of 04:19, 25 September 2014

@@@ Not so fast. Since realignment in 2002, 98 of the 144 playoff <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Cheap-Gucci-Outlet-Sunglasses-Men-For-Baby-Bamboo.html>Gucci Sunglasses Men</a> teams won their season opener. But 46 teams made the playoffs after losing their season opener. Because of the brevity of the NFL season with just 16 games, every game carries an inordinate weight in determining a team's playoff odds. After just one week of play, the playoff odds have shifted significantly from the 37.5% all teams shared before kickoff weekend. Overall, 51% of the teams who have won their season opener since 2002 also made the playoffs (98 of 192 teams). Conversely, only 24% of the teams that lost their season opener eventually made the playoffs over the same period (46/192). Yet nothing is lost for teams like the , who stumbled out of the gate on opening weekend. Because the brevity of the NFL season also means that if <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Belts-Sale-Shorts-Ballet-Flats-Loafers.html>Gucci Belts Sale</a> you string together a couple of wins, you'll be back in the thick of the playoff race. The image below shows how the playoff odds have developed over the last 12 seasons from Week 1 through Week 4:


In principle, there's no reason why the Cowboys shouldn't be able to win their next couple of games, and climb back to 50% playoff odds by Week 3 with a 2-1 record. In principle. But that assumes that the Cowboys did indeed stumble out of the block on Sunday, and <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Cheap-Gucci-Handbags-Men-Wallets-Clothes-Cheap-Mens-Loafers.html>Gucci Men Wallets</a> that their loss to the is not indicative of a bigger issue. If it's the latter, then this chart has an ugly message: Another loss would drop the Cowboys' playoff odds to a little below one in 10, and three consecutive losses to start the season means we can start planning for next year. And I for one do not want to look at mock drafts in September.

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