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(What Does The Dallas Cowboys 0)
(Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg View- Why the Ice Bucket Challenge was big)
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Not so fast. Since realignment in 2002, 98 of the 144 playoff <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Cheap-Gucci-Handbags-Glass-Frames-Gloves-Riding-Boots.html>Cheap Gucci Handbags</a>  teams won their season opener. But 46 teams made the playoffs after losing their season opener.
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鈥淪ince narcissists believe their status increases when they are associated with other special or high-status people, posting pictures of desirable friends may give narcissists a means of bolstering their egos,鈥?psychologist Shawn Bergman and collaborators wrote in a 2010 paper on the subject.
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Because of the brevity of the NFL season with just 16 games, every game carries an inordinate weight in determining a team's playoff odds. After just one week of play, the playoff odds have shifted significantly from the 37.5% all teams shared before kickoff weekend. Overall, 51% of the teams who have won their season opener since 2002 also made the playoffs (98 of 192 teams). Conversely, only 24% of the teams that lost their season opener eventually made the playoffs over the same period (46/192).
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The Ice Bucket Challenge is a narcissist鈥檚 bonanza. You get to show yourself doing something marginally daring. Everybody will see how fit, handsome or witty you are 鈥?and how altruistic! Though the original deal was to donate to the ALS Association or pour a bucket of ice water over one鈥檚 head, people have <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Belts-Sale-Buy-Suspenders-Mens-Sneakers.html>Gucci Belts Sale</a>  typically done both and made no secret of it. What鈥檚 more, you get to associate yourself with all the famous people who are doing the same thing. There鈥檚 Bill Gates, who probably didn鈥檛 need the extra publicity or attention to his charity work but still built an elaborate contraption to douse himself, probably figuring he could up the ante in the ALS collection drive. There鈥檚 also Justin Bieber, who showed off his body and nominated all his fans and President Obama to upend those buckets.
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Yet nothing is lost for teams like the , who stumbled out of the gate on opening weekend. Because the brevity of the NFL season also means that if <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Handbags-Outlet-Cheap-Belt-Jelly-Flats-Hoodie.html>Cheap Gucci Belt</a>  you string together a couple of wins, you'll be back in the thick of the playoff race. The image below shows how the playoff odds have developed over the last 12 seasons from Week 1 through Week 4:
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There鈥檚 safety in crowds. If you鈥檙e bragging about doing something lots of others 鈥?and all those important people 鈥?are doing, you鈥檙e not really boasting. You鈥檙e showing that you fit in with the right bunch of people.
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Don鈥檛 your motives still look shallow or self-serving, though?
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鈥淚t is surprising to see so many people advertise their good deeds in that there exists a strong norm to be modest about prosocial behavior,鈥?London Business School professor Jonathan Berman and a group of researchers wrote in a 2014 article. After running various experiments, some of which involved posting <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Handbags-Outlet-Pet-Carrier-Outlet-Chicago-Bags-Outlet.html>Gucci Outlet Chicago</a>  reports of one鈥檚 good deeds on social networks, the group concluded that 鈥渂ragging about prosocial behavior is special because it directly undermines the information that an individual is trying to convey.鈥?If you boast about your altruism, you are seen as less altruistic. To avoid this unwelcome effect, 鈥減eople may create an appropriate context to discuss good deeds by steering a conversation in a direction that makes it appropriate to discuss prosocial behavior.鈥?
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In principle, there's no reason why the Cowboys shouldn't be able to win their next couple of games, and climb back to 50% playoff odds by Week 3 with a 2-1 record. In principle.
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Trademarking?
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But that assumes that the Cowboys did indeed stumble out of the block on Sunday, and <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Belts-Online-Real-Men-Sunglasses-Ties.html>Gucci Belts Online</a>  that their loss to the is not indicative of a bigger issue. If it's the latter, then this chart has an ugly message: Another loss would drop the Cowboys' playoff odds to a little below one in 10, and three consecutive losses to start the season means we can start planning for next year.
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The Ice Bucket Challenge provides the perfect context: You don鈥檛 talk about giving money to fight Lou Gehrig鈥檚 disease. You discuss the feel of that icy water on your pate, or Bieber鈥檚 narcissism, or Gates鈥檚 geekiness. It solves the 鈥渂raggart鈥檚 dilemma鈥?鈥?whether to tell others about your altruism 鈥?by removing the suspicion that your motives are selfish.
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And I for one do not want to look at mock drafts in September.
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It鈥檚 such a perfect bit <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Outlet-Online-Outlet-Handbags-Mens-Backpack-Infant-Shoes.html>Gucci Outlet Online</a>  of social engineering that the ALS Association鈥檚 effort to trademark it is perfectly understandable. Who cares about niceties, or Matthew 6:3, when something works to raise lots of money for a good cause? This is a case where the end may well justify the means 鈥?as long as no one gets killed.
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Have I taken the Ice Bucket Challenge? No. Have I donated to the ALS Association? None of your business.
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Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg View contributor. He is a Berlin-based writer, author of three novels and two nonfiction books.

Revision as of 20:34, 30 September 2014

@@@ 鈥淪ince narcissists believe their status increases when they are associated with other special or high-status people, posting pictures of desirable friends may give narcissists a means of bolstering their egos,鈥?psychologist Shawn Bergman and collaborators wrote in a 2010 paper on the subject.

The Ice Bucket Challenge is a narcissist鈥檚 bonanza. You get to show yourself doing something marginally daring. Everybody will see how fit, handsome or witty you are 鈥?and how altruistic! Though the original deal was to donate to the ALS Association or pour a bucket of ice water over one鈥檚 head, people have <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Belts-Sale-Buy-Suspenders-Mens-Sneakers.html>Gucci Belts Sale</a>  typically done both and made no secret of it. What鈥檚 more, you get to associate yourself with all the famous people who are doing the same thing. There鈥檚 Bill Gates, who probably didn鈥檛 need the extra publicity or attention to his charity work but still built an elaborate contraption to douse himself, probably figuring he could up the ante in the ALS collection drive. There鈥檚 also Justin Bieber, who showed off his body and nominated all his fans and President Obama to upend those buckets.
There鈥檚 safety in crowds. If you鈥檙e bragging about doing something lots of others 鈥?and all those important people 鈥?are doing, you鈥檙e not really boasting. You鈥檙e showing that you fit in with the right bunch of people.
Don鈥檛 your motives still look shallow or self-serving, though?
鈥淚t is surprising to see so many people advertise their good deeds in that there exists a strong norm to be modest about prosocial behavior,鈥?London Business School professor Jonathan Berman and a group of researchers wrote in a 2014 article. After running various experiments, some of which involved posting <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Handbags-Outlet-Pet-Carrier-Outlet-Chicago-Bags-Outlet.html>Gucci Outlet Chicago</a>  reports of one鈥檚 good deeds on social networks, the group concluded that 鈥渂ragging about prosocial behavior is special because it directly undermines the information that an individual is trying to convey.鈥?If you boast about your altruism, you are seen as less altruistic. To avoid this unwelcome effect, 鈥減eople may create an appropriate context to discuss good deeds by steering a conversation in a direction that makes it appropriate to discuss prosocial behavior.鈥?
Trademarking?
The Ice Bucket Challenge provides the perfect context: You don鈥檛 talk about giving money to fight Lou Gehrig鈥檚 disease. You discuss the feel of that icy water on your pate, or Bieber鈥檚 narcissism, or Gates鈥檚 geekiness. It solves the 鈥渂raggart鈥檚 dilemma鈥?鈥?whether to tell others about your altruism 鈥?by removing the suspicion that your motives are selfish.
It鈥檚 such a perfect bit <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Outlet-Online-Outlet-Handbags-Mens-Backpack-Infant-Shoes.html>Gucci Outlet Online</a>  of social engineering that the ALS Association鈥檚 effort to trademark it is perfectly understandable. Who cares about niceties, or Matthew 6:3, when something works to raise lots of money for a good cause? This is a case where the end may well justify the means 鈥?as long as no one gets killed.
Have I taken the Ice Bucket Challenge? No. Have I donated to the ALS Association? None of your business.
Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg View contributor. He is a Berlin-based writer, author of three novels and two nonfiction books.
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