Difference between revisions of "User:RahalMccall69"
From eplmediawiki
(USA Basketball cuts Paul Millsap, John Wall and Bradley Beal) |
(Sell the rumour, yawn the news) |
||
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
@@@ | @@@ | ||
| − | + | And what s more, there s a fair chance that the eventual modest increase in US rates will be positive for the Australian economy and most who sail in her. | |
| − | + | RBA's hopes | |
| − | + | If all goes according to the Reserve Bank s hopes and prayers, firmer US interest rates will help weaken the Aussie, while our rates will stay where they are as the economy continues its transition. | |
| + | That would be nice, as America s early view to possible rate increases is not the same as ours. | ||
| + | Last week there were more voices publicly added to the belief that the overall US unemployment rate isn t what counts as a potential inflation warning. | ||
| + | The sad reality of the US is a much more disparate society. There s effectively a developing country tucked away inside the richest and most profligate nation on earth. Parts of it aren t developing at all. | ||
| + | <a href=http://www.Saclouisvuittonhomme.com>Sacoche LOUIS VUITTON Homme</a> The laissez-faire, low-wage, devil-take-the-hindmost society beloved by some of the local Billy Tea party comes at a cost. | ||
| + | Underemployment key | ||
| + | While the overall US unemployment rate sits at 6.2 per cent, it s not the size of the total pool of unemployed that determines whether wage pressure builds, but the size of the employable unemployed. | ||
| + | (The loss of skills and employability among the long-term unemployed is the main reason for hard-hearted economic rationalists to appreciate Australia s big GFC stimulus package the cost of the deficit has to be considered against the cost of a blowout in unemployment.) | ||
| + | I spent last week on an investment roadshow with funds manager Fidelity (yes, disclosure, they paid me to say a few words). One of the speakers was Fidelity s <a href=http://www.Saclouisvuittonhomme.com>Sac LOUIS VUITTON Homme</a> Asian fixed interest investment director, Gregor Carle, who specified that it s the trend in the short-term unemployment rate in the US that Fidelity s fixed interest team watches for early signs of inflation coming back to life. | ||
| + | He had the graphs to demonstrate the history and noted that the trend is short-term unemployment is indeed positive for the unemployed and negative for those who might not want wages to rise. | ||
| + | Elsewhere there were reports of skills shortages building in key US industries, including construction. That s not happening here in these early days of our transition from reliance on resources construction projects. Another nice rise in employment in the July Australian labour force stats this Thursday won t be changing the RBA s mind about anything. | ||
| + | Indeed, rather than catching a dose of the Yellen yips about higher rates, local investors still have to digest what sort of productivity bonus the corporate sector is about to report and the speed of that transition. | ||
| + | Retail sales | ||
| + | are saying the jury is still out on the recovery of consumer confidence. Yes, the seasonally adjusted guess for June was a nice 0.6 per cent improvement after May s dive, but drawing a line through it with the trend series, there s not much happening retail sales growth of just 0.1 per cent for each of the past three months. | ||
| + | Winter finally arriving in July should help when last month s numbers are counted, but the quarter s poor dollar figure despite decent volume growth isn t inspiring. | ||
| + | Of course, it could be worse it could just be the sorry department store sector, continuing to fade away. You have to go <a href=http://www.Saclouisvuittonhomme.com>Sacoche LOUIS VUITTON Homme pas cher</a> back to 2008 to find a June with lower original department store turnover. | ||
Revision as of 10:00, 12 August 2014
@@@ And what s more, there s a fair chance that the eventual modest increase in US rates will be positive for the Australian economy and most who sail in her.
RBA's hopes If all goes according to the Reserve Bank s hopes and prayers, firmer US interest rates will help weaken the Aussie, while our rates will stay where they are as the economy continues its transition. That would be nice, as America s early view to possible rate increases is not the same as ours. Last week there were more voices publicly added to the belief that the overall US unemployment rate isn t what counts as a potential inflation warning. The sad reality of the US is a much more disparate society. There s effectively a developing country tucked away inside the richest and most profligate nation on earth. Parts of it aren t developing at all. <a href=http://www.Saclouisvuittonhomme.com>Sacoche LOUIS VUITTON Homme</a> The laissez-faire, low-wage, devil-take-the-hindmost society beloved by some of the local Billy Tea party comes at a cost. Underemployment key While the overall US unemployment rate sits at 6.2 per cent, it s not the size of the total pool of unemployed that determines whether wage pressure builds, but the size of the employable unemployed. (The loss of skills and employability among the long-term unemployed is the main reason for hard-hearted economic rationalists to appreciate Australia s big GFC stimulus package the cost of the deficit has to be considered against the cost of a blowout in unemployment.) I spent last week on an investment roadshow with funds manager Fidelity (yes, disclosure, they paid me to say a few words). One of the speakers was Fidelity s <a href=http://www.Saclouisvuittonhomme.com>Sac LOUIS VUITTON Homme</a> Asian fixed interest investment director, Gregor Carle, who specified that it s the trend in the short-term unemployment rate in the US that Fidelity s fixed interest team watches for early signs of inflation coming back to life. He had the graphs to demonstrate the history and noted that the trend is short-term unemployment is indeed positive for the unemployed and negative for those who might not want wages to rise. Elsewhere there were reports of skills shortages building in key US industries, including construction. That s not happening here in these early days of our transition from reliance on resources construction projects. Another nice rise in employment in the July Australian labour force stats this Thursday won t be changing the RBA s mind about anything. Indeed, rather than catching a dose of the Yellen yips about higher rates, local investors still have to digest what sort of productivity bonus the corporate sector is about to report and the speed of that transition. Retail sales are saying the jury is still out on the recovery of consumer confidence. Yes, the seasonally adjusted guess for June was a nice 0.6 per cent improvement after May s dive, but drawing a line through it with the trend series, there s not much happening retail sales growth of just 0.1 per cent for each of the past three months. Winter finally arriving in July should help when last month s numbers are counted, but the quarter s poor dollar figure despite decent volume growth isn t inspiring. Of course, it could be worse it could just be the sorry department store sector, continuing to fade away. You have to go <a href=http://www.Saclouisvuittonhomme.com>Sacoche LOUIS VUITTON Homme pas cher</a> back to 2008 to find a June with lower original department store turnover.
