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(Hard math subtracts from Jay's batting crown chances - Sports)
(MARSHALL, Mich.- GOP in uphill battle in Michigan US Senate fight)
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CINCINNATI聽鈥?There were scouts and coaches who saw a young Jon Jay enter the Cardinals organization and believed he had the approach and the level swing 鈥?even with those 鈥渉elicopter hands鈥?鈥?to someday win a battle title, most likely in the minors. Jay has ditched the butter-churning trigger he had at the beginning of his swing, and he鈥檚 made it more compact, quicker, and he鈥檚 only increased his ability to be considered a .300 hitter.That鈥檚 enough to take a run at the batting title in this year鈥檚 NL.The numbers are stacked against him. His numbers.Jay went one-for-three with two walks during Monday鈥檚 victory at Great American Ball Park, and the plate appearances as much as the hit put him that much closer to qualifying for the 2014 batting race. Jay has hit .385 in September, and <a href=http://capstone.edu.sg/images/guccioutlet.onlinesalecc.php>Gucci Outlet Store</a>  he鈥檚 batting .315 overall. That would put him in the top three in National League, clustered there with Justin Morneau (.316) and Josh Harrison (.315). But Jay doesn鈥檛 have enough plate appearances to rank. Due to the Cardinals鈥?time-share approach to the outfield for the first half of the season, Jay has 406 plate appearances. That is 40 shy of the total he would need to crack the leaderboard today.To be qualified for the batting title, a player needs 3.1 plate appearances per team game. A Cardinal, as of this morning, would need 446 plate appearances this season to rank with the other NL leaders.By the end of the season鈥檚 162 games, a player needs 502 plate appearances.To get there, Jay needs to average 5.33 plate appearances a game for the remaining 18 games. He had five plate appearances on Monday and it turn the Cardinals turning the lineup over and over in a 5-0 shutout to get him that many. Batting second more regularly will <a href=http://www.symbiose.ca/images/christianlouboutin.gwij.php>Christian Louboutin Sale</a>  help, but it鈥檚 still a difficult gap to close.There is another way to win the title, however.Major League Baseball鈥檚 rules do permit a player to accept empty at-bats to cover the gap between his plate appearances and the minimum required for a batting title. If, say, a player has 495 plate appearances and a 15-point gap on the current leader, that player can accept a zero-for-seven added to his average and if he still leads he鈥檚 the batting champ. The other night in Milwaukee, I grabbed a napkin and did the math on what Jay is facing, even if he wants to take the zeroes to try and qualify.Let鈥檚 do some math!(Warning: Algebra was used in the research for this blog.)Over the final 19 games (including Monday鈥檚), Jay would have to average
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MARSHALL, Mich. Not so long ago, Republicans were giddy about winning U.S. Senate control in part by picking up a prized seat in Michigan held for more than three decades by a retiring Democratic lion, Sen. Carl Levin.They had good reason. Michigan voters had given the GOP control of the statehouse and governor's office, and conservative organizations prepared to deluge the state's airwaves. But as midterm elections loom, the optimism has become a salvage operation for the GOP candidate, Terri Lynn Land.On the surface, she might have seemed an ideal Republican candidate. Pro-business, Land has won statewide office twice, as secretary of state. But she has been tripped up by lackluster public appearances, polling concerns and dwindling outside financial support."She hasn't made a strong impression," said Bob LaBrant, a Republican and former chief lobbyist for the GOP-heavy Michigan Chamber of Commerce, which endorsed Land.The situation in Michigan seems to underscore the difference in skill sets between those required for campaigning, and those needed for governing."She'd make a better senator than she does a campaigner," Jackson County GOP committee member Leland Prebble said after a small Republican reception for Land last week. "Peters is a better campaigner."U.S. Rep. Gary Peters is no <a href=http://www.museosangennaro.com/Public/wdluk.php>Louboutin Shoes UK</a>  runaway favorite. But the three-term Democratic congressman from suburban Detroit has led Land in nearly every reliable public opinion poll since April.Well-known within the party having risen through its ranks, Land has not often put herself in front of large audiences of undecided voters, as the state's moderate Republican governor Rick Snyder has in his quest for a second term.On a bus tour through southern and western Michigan last week, she met with small groups of supporters and businesses, before addressing the Republican faithful in her home region of Kent County in GOP-heavy western Michigan.In May, Land walked away from a gaggle of reporters when pressed on her position on the auto industry bailout, after giving a lackluster speech to influential business and political leaders on Mackinac Island, and ultimately did not answer.Two weeks ago, she spoke from prepared notes and used a teleprompter <a href=http://www.avanttravel.com/michaelkorssonline.php> michael kors handbags</a>  to give her speech to the Michigan Republican Convention. In contrast, Snyder strode on stage with a microphone in hand instead of notes.Examination of television advertisement spending in the race shows that Land drew $14 million in outside group spending to assist her through June, but that it has dropped off sharply since. That's forced Land to spend more of her own personal wealth to fill the void until the fall campaign.And now, with just two months until Election Day, outside groups that endorsed her are putting far less behind her effort. Some are moving their campaign investments to other races.Senate Republicans need to gain six seats to assume the majority. They feel the goal remains within their grasp, given five Democratic retiring veterans, including Levin. But a number of moves by outside groups suggest Michigan has fallen as a GOP priority, unlike Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina.And despite American Crossroads reserving $800,000 in advertising for a week in September, Peters and allied groups are on pace to vastly outspend Land in the race's final weeks.Americans for Prosperity, the flagship group of billionaire conservative brothers Charles and David Koch, stopped advertising for Land this summer, after spending $5.1 million in ads supporting her through June, but describing the race as "an uphill climb."Likewise, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which endorsed Land, ran $400,000 in ads, but has not since June.The most recent red flag for Land came last month when Freedom Partners, a group associated with the Kochs, canceled an $878,000 ad purchase that was to run in Michigan throughout August."There is a high interest in return on investment," James Davis of Freedom Partners said. "We make decisions based on the most effective use for each dollar at that time."Since then, Americans for Prosperity, for instance, has reinforced its advertising presence in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado and <a href=http://www.alportico.net/prodotti/christianlouboutin-sale.jkmsw.php>Christian Louboutin Heels</a>  Louisiana Senate races.Land, who has already contributed more than $3 million of her own, declined to say if she'll be forced to spend more of her own money to keep up."You need to invest what you're capable of," Land said in an Associated Press interview in Marshall. "We're going to work hard and do that."Hesitant to say so publicly, some Michigan and national GOP officials say Land was not their first choice. They tried recruiting U.S. Reps. Mike Rogers or Dave Camp, after Land put her name forward last year.Land told supporters during a campaign trip to small businesses, farms, campaign offices and small groups of supporters that the race would be close, and that she would gut it out with their help."A lot can stop Michigan from being in play, but we've made it in play," Land told about 60 campaign supporters and volunteers in Ann Arbor last Tuesday.Land zipped from curb to curb down the parade route in Romeo shaking hands, smiling and waving in the Labor Day sun during the picturesque southeast Michigan's annual Peach Festival parade.But she can also come across as businesslike at times in a pursuit that requires a certain amount of interpersonal comfort with strangers."I think she could use a little more eloquence," Dan Valascho, a Republican Land supporter from Grosse Ile said. "But that's hard to teach."
鈥?3.2 PA/G, as he has all season, to get 61 more plate appearances and finish with 462
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鈥?4.0 PA/G, ahead of his 鈥?4 pace, to get 76 extra plate appearances and finish with 477
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With 61 at-bats, he would need to take a zero-for-40 to qualify
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鈥?If he hits .508 (31-for-61), he鈥檇 finish with a .344 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .313
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鈥?If he hits .393 (24-for-61), he鈥檇 finish with a .326 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .298
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鈥?If he hits .311 (19-for-61), he鈥檇 finish with a .315 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .287
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With 76 at-bats, he would need to take a zero-for-25 to qualify
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鈥?If he hits .500 (38-for-76), he鈥檇 finish with a .348 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .329
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鈥?If he hits .394 (30-for-76), he鈥檇 finish with a .311 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .311
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鈥?If he hits .302 (23-for-76), he鈥檇 finish with a .313 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .296
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The above descriptions are simplified because they just accept that all of the plate appearances will be at-bats. That made the math easier.But, let鈥檚 assume he maintains his walk rate of about 6.5 percent.That gives him the plate appearances without dinging the average.With 61 plate appearances, that鈥檚 four walks. He鈥檇 be 40 PAs shy with 57 at-bats
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鈥?If he hits .508 (27-for-57), he鈥檇 finish with a .337 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .307
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鈥?If he hits .404 (23-for-57), he鈥檇 finish with a .327 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .298
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With 76 plate appearances, that鈥檚 five walks. He鈥檇 be 25 PAs shy with 71 at-bats
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鈥?If he hits .507 (36-for-71), he鈥檇 finish with a .347 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .321
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鈥?If he hits .394 (28-for-71), he鈥檇 <a href=http://capstone.edu.sg/images/gucciusaonlineoutlet.php>gucci outlet</a>  finish with a .328 average, but after the zeroes that鈥檚 .303
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That gives you a sense of the hard math facing Jay鈥檚 batting crown chances.He won鈥檛 have enough plate appearances to qualify outright for the title (unless a lot of extra-inning games are in the Cardinals鈥?future), so he needs to get as many plate appearances as possible and as many hits in those plate appearances as possible. All of these calculations and it鈥檚 just a simple matter of arithmetic. He cannot just finish ahead of the other NL hitters when it comes to average; he has to finish well ahead to overcome the empty at-bats he鈥檒l have to add.Through no fault of his production, the sum of his season will likely fall short.-30-
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Revision as of 16:59, 11 September 2014

@@@ MARSHALL, Mich. Not so long ago, Republicans were giddy about winning U.S. Senate control in part by picking up a prized seat in Michigan held for more than three decades by a retiring Democratic lion, Sen. Carl Levin.They had good reason. Michigan voters had given the GOP control of the statehouse and governor's office, and conservative organizations prepared to deluge the state's airwaves. But as midterm elections loom, the optimism has become a salvage operation for the GOP candidate, Terri Lynn Land.On the surface, she might have seemed an ideal Republican candidate. Pro-business, Land has won statewide office twice, as secretary of state. But she has been tripped up by lackluster public appearances, polling concerns and dwindling outside financial support."She hasn't made a strong impression," said Bob LaBrant, a Republican and former chief lobbyist for the GOP-heavy Michigan Chamber of Commerce, which endorsed Land.The situation in Michigan seems to underscore the difference in skill sets between those required for campaigning, and those needed for governing."She'd make a better senator than she does a campaigner," Jackson County GOP committee member Leland Prebble said after a small Republican reception for Land last week. "Peters is a better campaigner."U.S. Rep. Gary Peters is no <a href=http://www.museosangennaro.com/Public/wdluk.php>Louboutin Shoes UK</a> runaway favorite. But the three-term Democratic congressman from suburban Detroit has led Land in nearly every reliable public opinion poll since April.Well-known within the party having risen through its ranks, Land has not often put herself in front of large audiences of undecided voters, as the state's moderate Republican governor Rick Snyder has in his quest for a second term.On a bus tour through southern and western Michigan last week, she met with small groups of supporters and businesses, before addressing the Republican faithful in her home region of Kent County in GOP-heavy western Michigan.In May, Land walked away from a gaggle of reporters when pressed on her position on the auto industry bailout, after giving a lackluster speech to influential business and political leaders on Mackinac Island, and ultimately did not answer.Two weeks ago, she spoke from prepared notes and used a teleprompter <a href=http://www.avanttravel.com/michaelkorssonline.php> michael kors handbags</a> to give her speech to the Michigan Republican Convention. In contrast, Snyder strode on stage with a microphone in hand instead of notes.Examination of television advertisement spending in the race shows that Land drew $14 million in outside group spending to assist her through June, but that it has dropped off sharply since. That's forced Land to spend more of her own personal wealth to fill the void until the fall campaign.And now, with just two months until Election Day, outside groups that endorsed her are putting far less behind her effort. Some are moving their campaign investments to other races.Senate Republicans need to gain six seats to assume the majority. They feel the goal remains within their grasp, given five Democratic retiring veterans, including Levin. But a number of moves by outside groups suggest Michigan has fallen as a GOP priority, unlike Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina.And despite American Crossroads reserving $800,000 in advertising for a week in September, Peters and allied groups are on pace to vastly outspend Land in the race's final weeks.Americans for Prosperity, the flagship group of billionaire conservative brothers Charles and David Koch, stopped advertising for Land this summer, after spending $5.1 million in ads supporting her through June, but describing the race as "an uphill climb."Likewise, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which endorsed Land, ran $400,000 in ads, but has not since June.The most recent red flag for Land came last month when Freedom Partners, a group associated with the Kochs, canceled an $878,000 ad purchase that was to run in Michigan throughout August."There is a high interest in return on investment," James Davis of Freedom Partners said. "We make decisions based on the most effective use for each dollar at that time."Since then, Americans for Prosperity, for instance, has reinforced its advertising presence in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado and <a href=http://www.alportico.net/prodotti/christianlouboutin-sale.jkmsw.php>Christian Louboutin Heels</a> Louisiana Senate races.Land, who has already contributed more than $3 million of her own, declined to say if she'll be forced to spend more of her own money to keep up."You need to invest what you're capable of," Land said in an Associated Press interview in Marshall. "We're going to work hard and do that."Hesitant to say so publicly, some Michigan and national GOP officials say Land was not their first choice. They tried recruiting U.S. Reps. Mike Rogers or Dave Camp, after Land put her name forward last year.Land told supporters during a campaign trip to small businesses, farms, campaign offices and small groups of supporters that the race would be close, and that she would gut it out with their help."A lot can stop Michigan from being in play, but we've made it in play," Land told about 60 campaign supporters and volunteers in Ann Arbor last Tuesday.Land zipped from curb to curb down the parade route in Romeo shaking hands, smiling and waving in the Labor Day sun during the picturesque southeast Michigan's annual Peach Festival parade.But she can also come across as businesslike at times in a pursuit that requires a certain amount of interpersonal comfort with strangers."I think she could use a little more eloquence," Dan Valascho, a Republican Land supporter from Grosse Ile said. "But that's hard to teach."

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