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The concept of 鈥渟ecular stagnation鈥?鈥?that the economy may be facing a protracted period of low growth and high unemployment 鈥?has been seeping back into economic and policy discourse. Once relegated to the margins of heterodox economic theory, the idea of stagnation as a likely ongoing direction for the economy, in fact, is now virtually mainstream, expounded by such well-known figures as Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman.Stagnation, however, is not a new problem. Careful examination of the U.S. economy over the last century suggests <a href=http://www.avanttravel.com/michaelkorssonline.php> michael kors handbags</a> that stagnation may not be the exception but just possibly the rule of modern economic performance 鈥?a rule that was mainly broken only by the stimulus effects of massive military expenditures at three crucial junctures.Major economic floundering in the first quarter of the 20th century was relieved by the boost World War I gave to the economy, and the tremendous economic collapse in the second quarter was ended by World War II鈥檚 huge increase in military spending. In the third quarter, the Korean War, the Cold War and the Vietnam War added major stimulus at key times.Moreover, several of the indirect consequences of World War II 鈥?including wartime savings, the compression of wages, the strengthening of unions, the GI Bill that educated millions of veterans, and the reconstruction of Europe, together with the fact that major competitors had been temporarily destroyed by war 鈥?all contributed to the third quarter鈥檚 great economic boom.The modern trend, despite Iraq, Afghanistan and other smaller-scale wars, is also clear. Defense expenditures declined decade by decade from a Korean War high of 13.8 percent of the economy in 1953 to 3.7聽percent in the 2000s, with steadily reduced economic impact. The financial bubbles in the late 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s produced only partial and highly unstable upswings that masked the underlying decline.The notion that stagnation is far more important than is commonly understood has been bolstered by Thomas Piketty鈥檚 landmark book 鈥淐apital in the Twenty-First Century,鈥?which also emphasizes just how unusual the era of the Depression and two world wars was. Piketty鈥檚 analysis suggests that the high growth rates of the post-World War II period were, by and large, an aberration. 鈥淢any people think that growth ought to be at least 3 or 4 percent a year,鈥?he wrote. 鈥淏oth history and logic show this to be <a href=http://www.symbiose.ca/images/christianlouboutin.gwij.php>Christian Louboutin Sale</a> illusory.鈥漋iewed in this light, the latest long-range projections from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Paris-based intergovernmental group for advanced economies, make for sobering reading. In a new report, 鈥淧olicy Challenges for the Next 50 Years,鈥?the OECD warns that economic growth in the world鈥檚 advanced industrial economies 鈥?including Europe, North America and Japan 鈥?will likely slow even further from historic levels over the next half-century, while inequality will rocket to new heights and climate change will take an increasingly damaging toll on world GDP.According to the projections, the OECD member nations鈥?annual average contribution to global GDP growth will steadily fall from 1.19 percent this decade to 0.54 percent between 2050 and 2060. Meanwhile, inequality in these countries may rise as much as 30 percent or more.The OECD projections are, if anything, optimistic, since they assume that Europe and the United States each will absorb <a href=http://capstone.edu.sg/clreplicashoes.php> Christian Louboutin Outlet Online</a> in the neighborhood of 50 million new immigrants over this period 鈥?an assumption that may run contrary to the restrictive politics of immigration playing out on both sides of the Atlantic.The economic remedy for stagnation is relatively straightforward 鈥?in theory: Faltering demand could be offset by large-scale government spending on infrastructure, education and other much-needed investments. In practice, however, it is painfully clear that large-scale Keynesian policies of this kind are no longer politically viable.The implications of the emerging possibility of a sustained period of stagnation are profound. Through the repeated economic downturns of recent U.S. history 鈥?11 since 1945 alone 鈥?the expectation of eventual sustained recovery has been the critical assumption underpinning both politics and policy. An era of stagnation would undermine the economic basis of traditional political hope of both left and right. It would mean ongoing high unemployment, ongoing deficits, ongoing struggles to fund public programs and, in all probability, ongoing and intensified political deadlock and wrangling as unemployment continues, deficits increase and a profound battle over narrowing economic possibilities sets in.If stagnation is the new normal, we will likely be forced to reassess the fundamental assumptions of politics and the economy and to ultimately get serious about restructuring our faltering economic system in more far-reaching ways than most Americans have contemplated.Gar Alperovitz is the author of 鈥淲hat Then Must We Do? Straight Talk About the Next American Revolution鈥?and co-founder of the Democracy Collaborative. He wrote this for the Los Angeles Times.Copyright Los Angeles Times
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Caption NCAA Football: Akron at [url=http://www.styledepth.com/test.php?sale=True-Religion-Boys-Jeans]True Religion Boys Jeans[/url] Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS A general view of Beaver Stadium prior to the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Akron Zips. A general view of Beaver Stadium prior to the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Akron Zips. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries  Caption NCAA Football: Akron at Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS Penn State Nittany Lions cheerleaders prior to the game against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. Penn State Nittany Lions cheerleaders prior to the game against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries  Caption NCAA Football: Akron at Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin stands at the gate prior to the game against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. Penn [url=http://www.styledepth.com/test.php?sale=Buy-True-Religion-Jeans]True Religion Jeans On Sale[/url] State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin stands at the gate prior to the game against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries  Caption NCAA Football: Akron at Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS Penn State Nittany Lions student section cheer for a safety during the second [url=http://www.duncannon.co.uk/js/ajax.asp]Cheap Beats By Dre[/url] quarter against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. Penn State Nittany Lions student section cheer for a safety during the second quarter against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries  Caption NCAA Football: Akron at Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) drops back in the pocket during the second quarter against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) drops back in the pocket during the second quarter against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries

Revision as of 21:41, 18 September 2014

Caption NCAA Football: Akron at [url=http://www.styledepth.com/test.php?sale=True-Religion-Boys-Jeans]True Religion Boys Jeans[/url] Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS A general view of Beaver Stadium prior to the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Akron Zips. A general view of Beaver Stadium prior to the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Akron Zips. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries Caption NCAA Football: Akron at Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS Penn State Nittany Lions cheerleaders prior to the game against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. Penn State Nittany Lions cheerleaders prior to the game against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries Caption NCAA Football: Akron at Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin stands at the gate prior to the game against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. Penn [url=http://www.styledepth.com/test.php?sale=Buy-True-Religion-Jeans]True Religion Jeans On Sale[/url] State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin stands at the gate prior to the game against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries Caption NCAA Football: Akron at Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS Penn State Nittany Lions student section cheer for a safety during the second [url=http://www.duncannon.co.uk/js/ajax.asp]Cheap Beats By Dre[/url] quarter against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. Penn State Nittany Lions student section cheer for a safety during the second quarter against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries Caption NCAA Football: Akron at Penn State MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) drops back in the pocket during the second quarter against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Christian Hackenberg (14) drops back in the pocket during the second quarter against the Akron Zips at Beaver Stadium. (MATTHEW OHAREN / USA TODAY SPORTS)See more galleries

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