Difference between revisions of "User:RahalMccall69"

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(Will Romo bounce back- What the data says.)
(Insured losses from Napa quake won’t top $250 million, RMS says)
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A couple notes: the cut-off for a QBR drop that I considered significant was a drop of around 20 points. Some QBs barely missed the <a href=http://www.cicviseu.net/page.php?sale=Tory-Burch-Suede-Flats>Tory Burch Uk</a>  cut-offs (see Roethlisberger), but I decided to include them anyways. Also, Rodgers obviously didn't have a "bad" game week 1, but he did drop his QBR by ~30 points, so I decided to include him as well.
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Risk Management Solutions said on Tuesday that insured losses from the Aug. 24 Napa earthquake That is much less than an estimate issued within 12 hours of the quake by its competitor Eqecat, which predicted insured losses of $500 million to $1 billion.
Let's Take a Closer Look.
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Both companies are catastrophe-risk modeling firms that help <a href=http://www.symbiose.ca/images/christianlouboutin.gwij.php>Christian Louboutin Outlet</a>  insurance and reinsurance companies estimate the risk of loss from natural and, more recently, man-made disasters. They frequently issue loss estimates shortly after events.
The average change in yearly QBR for these QBs is -11.68
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Damage estimates vary widely depending on what鈥檚 included and what goes into them.
This is actually the most disheartening statistic. What this really means is that Romo will probably have a significantly worse season this year, judging by his performance in the first game. None of the QBs who had a significant drop in their first game was able to even get close to their previous year's performance (at least in terms of QBR).
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RMS said its estimate is based 鈥渙n a combination of ground reconnaissance and detailed modeling analyses.鈥?Last week, it 聽first-hand before issuing its estimate.
No QB had a drop as drastic as Romo did
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Eqecat  before sending anyone to the scene. It has not updated its number, which is based on modeling alone.
This kind of builds on the previous point, but Romo had a drop of -35.9 points. In our group of QBs only Rodgers gets close to that, and he was playing with a completely ridiculous 122.5 QBR the previous year. What this means is that the Romo we know and love could be a lot worse than we had hoped this year, maybe one of the worst years yet. This does not bode well for the team. However...
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Both companies only include insured losses to residential, commercial and industrial property, including payments for lost revenues to companies that had business-interruption coverage. They exclude damage to public infrastructure and uninsured private property.
Out of all the teams with QBs that we able to stay above 80 QBR, only the  and  had a losing record
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The U.S. Geological Survey聽, with a median estimate of $2 billion, according to USGS spokesman Tom Brocher. This includes insured and uninsured losses to both public and private property.聽The USGS estimate was derived by looking at the number of people exposed to various levels of shaking and comparing that to losses from other earthquakes. It was not based on any direct observation on the ground. 鈥淭here is nothing known about what <a href=http://www.alportico.net/gosoc.php> true religion sale</a>  is damaged and not damaged鈥?in Napa, Brocher says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a model, that鈥檚 why it is very approximate.鈥?Its estimate was last updated four days after the quake.
Okay, now we're talking blue kool-aid. Yeah, yeah I know correlation, causation whatever, but the fact remains there's some knowledge to be gained here. This is actually the main reason why <a href=http://www.cicviseu.net/page.php?sale=Nordstrom-Tory-Burch-Handbags>Nordstrom Tory Burch Handbags</a>  I think the  might not be so bad this year. Looking at the teams that ended badly: Redskins are always a shaky team, especially in these past few years with RG3's knee and all. The Saints in 2012 had a horrible defense that gave up the most yards and second most points. I really doubt Romo's supporting cast this year could be as bad as those two teams. So there's still a little bit of hope for our Cowboys, especially since the 2013 won their division 12-4. Bad news is, none of the teams who had QBs below 80 QBR made it to playoffs.
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On Wednesday, Napa officials estimated that the quake to privately owned homes and businesses in the city of Napa. The estimate includes insured and uninsured losses but does not include damage to public buildings or infrastructure. Sonoma County officials estimated damage in their county at  
Good QBs...stay good
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RMS said its estimate 鈥渞eflects the combination of observed damage patterns in combination with <a href=http://capstone.edu.sg/images/guccioutlet.onlinesalecc.php>Gucci Shoes</a>  the limited earthquake insurance penetration in the region.鈥?The California Earthquake Authority has estimated that only 5 or 6 percent of homes in the quake-damaged area had quake insurance, compared to about 10 percent statewide.
Again going off the previous point, all 3 of the "elite" (ugh) Quarterbacks who laid an egg their first game still managed a pretty good QBR at the end of the year. Brady, Brees, and Rodgers each were above 87 QBR that year, and also still created a situation for their team to at least have a shot at a winning record. (Though <a href=http://architectscanterbury.co.uk/page.php?sale=True-Religion-Jeans-Sale-Men>Cheap True Religion</a>  we already discussed why Brees's 2012 team did not make it) I chose to think Romo is closer to Brees and Brady than he is to RGIII and Michael Vick, so there is reason to think Romo will bounce back better than expected.
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RMS said it found that:
Conclusion
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Most damage was extremely localized within NapaCounty. Most unreinforced masonry damage was in downtown Napa.
Okay, so the prognosis isn't too great. Romo is all but certain to decline this year, and very few teams with a QB that has declined make it to playoffs. There is still a little bit of hope, as evidenced by both Rodgers and Brady, if Romo can at least maintain a respectable QBR and the defense maintains its performance from week 1, we could end up with a team that is at least vying for a wildcard spot. If not, however, we could be in for a pretty rough year.
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Primary damage was due to ground shaking, with little damage caused by fire or sprinkler leakage.
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There was little liquefaction or lateral spreading.
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Unreinforced masonry chimney failures were seen across the region.
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In the Browns Valley section of Napa, residential damage was concentrated along the fault trace and included slippage from foundations and cracks in walls and garages.
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In Vallejo, older buildings and historic structures sustained much of the damage.
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Most businesses impacted by the earthquake reopened within a week of the event.
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In regions further afield, such as downtown Sonoma and Yountville, damage was limited, with the exception of a few high-value losses.

Revision as of 06:47, 19 September 2014

@@@ Risk Management Solutions said on Tuesday that insured losses from the Aug. 24 Napa earthquake That is much less than an estimate issued within 12 hours of the quake by its competitor Eqecat, which predicted insured losses of $500 million to $1 billion. Both companies are catastrophe-risk modeling firms that help <a href=http://www.symbiose.ca/images/christianlouboutin.gwij.php>Christian Louboutin Outlet</a> insurance and reinsurance companies estimate the risk of loss from natural and, more recently, man-made disasters. They frequently issue loss estimates shortly after events. Damage estimates vary widely depending on what鈥檚 included and what goes into them. RMS said its estimate is based 鈥渙n a combination of ground reconnaissance and detailed modeling analyses.鈥?Last week, it 聽first-hand before issuing its estimate. Eqecat before sending anyone to the scene. It has not updated its number, which is based on modeling alone. Both companies only include insured losses to residential, commercial and industrial property, including payments for lost revenues to companies that had business-interruption coverage. They exclude damage to public infrastructure and uninsured private property. The U.S. Geological Survey聽, with a median estimate of $2 billion, according to USGS spokesman Tom Brocher. This includes insured and uninsured losses to both public and private property.聽The USGS estimate was derived by looking at the number of people exposed to various levels of shaking and comparing that to losses from other earthquakes. It was not based on any direct observation on the ground. 鈥淭here is nothing known about what <a href=http://www.alportico.net/gosoc.php> true religion sale</a> is damaged and not damaged鈥?in Napa, Brocher says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a model, that鈥檚 why it is very approximate.鈥?Its estimate was last updated four days after the quake. On Wednesday, Napa officials estimated that the quake to privately owned homes and businesses in the city of Napa. The estimate includes insured and uninsured losses but does not include damage to public buildings or infrastructure. Sonoma County officials estimated damage in their county at RMS said its estimate 鈥渞eflects the combination of observed damage patterns in combination with <a href=http://capstone.edu.sg/images/guccioutlet.onlinesalecc.php>Gucci Shoes</a> the limited earthquake insurance penetration in the region.鈥?The California Earthquake Authority has estimated that only 5 or 6 percent of homes in the quake-damaged area had quake insurance, compared to about 10 percent statewide. RMS said it found that: Most damage was extremely localized within NapaCounty. Most unreinforced masonry damage was in downtown Napa. Primary damage was due to ground shaking, with little damage caused by fire or sprinkler leakage. There was little liquefaction or lateral spreading. Unreinforced masonry chimney failures were seen across the region. In the Browns Valley section of Napa, residential damage was concentrated along the fault trace and included slippage from foundations and cracks in walls and garages. In Vallejo, older buildings and historic structures sustained much of the damage. Most businesses impacted by the earthquake reopened within a week of the event.聽 In regions further afield, such as downtown Sonoma and Yountville, damage was limited, with the exception of a few high-value losses.

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