Difference between revisions of "User:RahalMccall69"

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(Will Romo bounce back- What the data says.)
(A look at Jimmy Butler's shooting stats)
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A couple notes: the cut-off for a QBR drop that I considered significant was a drop of around 20 points. Some QBs barely missed the <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Handbags-Outlet-S-I-Walet.html>I Gucci</a>  cut-offs (see Roethlisberger), but I decided to include them anyways. Also, Rodgers obviously didn't have a "bad" game week 1, but he did drop his QBR by ~30 points, so I decided to include him as well.
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<Too>good for comments -yfbb]
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Let's Take a Closer Look.
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Just looked at Jimmy's shooting stats a little more. I think a lot of the differences in his numbers is based on how he was used.
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The average change in yearly QBR for these QBs is -11.68
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Here is his page from basketball-reference.com:
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This is actually the most disheartening statistic. What this really means is that Romo will probably have a significantly worse season this year, judging by his performance in the first game. None of the QBs who had a significant drop in their first game was able to even get close to their previous year's performance (at least in terms of QBR).
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Jimmy focused more on the defensive side last <a href=http://www.avanttravel.com/page.php?sale=Louboutin-Men-Sneakers>Louboutin Men Sneakers</a>  year as he became the #1 wing defender. His defensive win shares increased from 2.6 to 4.6, his Drtg improved from 104 to 100. Because of his increased defensive importance, he didn鈥檛 get to crash the boards as much. His offensive rebound % went from 7.2% to 3.9%, and his dunks made went from 45 down to 29.
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No QB had a drop as drastic as Romo did
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And he spent more time on the wing, maybe so he could get back on D quicker. The <a href=http://www.avanttravel.com/page.php?sale=Tory-Burch-Sample-Sale-Nyc>Tory Burch Sample Sale Nyc</a>  percentage of his shots that were 3pts increased from 20.5% to 34.6%. And those extra 3-pointers were from the top, not the corner. His corner 3鈥檚 decreased from 60% of his total 3point shots down to 30%.
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This kind of builds on the previous point, but Romo had a drop of -35.9 points. In our group of QBs only Rodgers gets close to that, and he was playing with a completely ridiculous 122.5 QBR the previous year. What this means is that the Romo we know and love could be a lot worse than we had hoped this year, maybe one of the worst years yet. This does not bode well for the team. However...
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If you breakdown his shooting percentages into 2-pointers, corner 3鈥檚 and other 3鈥檚 his percentages look like this:
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Out of all the teams with QBs that we able to stay above 80 QBR, only the  and  had a losing record
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2012-13 .489 (199-407) .365 (23-63) .405 (17-42)
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Okay, now we're talking blue kool-aid. Yeah, yeah I know correlation, causation whatever, but the fact remains there's some knowledge to be gained here. This is actually the main reason why <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Cheap-Gucci-Handbags-For-Women-Mens-Rings-Socks.html>Cheap Gucci Handbags</a>  I think the  might not be so bad this year. Looking at the teams that ended badly: Redskins are always a shaky team, especially in these past few years with RG3's knee and all. The Saints in 2012 had a horrible defense that gave up the most yards and second most points. I really doubt Romo's supporting cast this year could be as bad as those two teams. So there's still a little bit of hope for our Cowboys, especially since the 2013  won their division 12-4. Bad news is, none of the teams who had QBs below 80 QBR made it to playoffs.
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  2013-14 .457 (207-453) .431 (31-72) .220 (37-168)
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  Good QBs...stay good
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His 2-point shooting decrease is almost entirely due to not getting easy put backs. The percentage of his 2pt shots that came from 0-3 feet (including dunks) went from 49% to 37%, and those short ones are obviously the highest-percentage shots. Jimmy鈥檚 mid-range shooting percentages actually improved last year.
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Again going off the previous point, all 3 of the "elite" (ugh) Quarterbacks who laid an egg their first game still managed a pretty good QBR at the end of the year. Brady, Brees, and Rodgers each were above 87 QBR that year, and also still created a situation for their team to at least have a shot at a winning record. (Though <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Belts-Sale-Shorts-Ballet-Flats-Loafers.html>Gucci Loafers</a>  we already discussed why Brees's 2012 team did not make it) I chose to think Romo is closer to Brees and Brady than he is to RGIII and Michael Vick, so there is reason to think Romo will bounce back better than expected.
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And his 3point shooting percentage decline was due to the relative decrease in corner 3 attempts, which he is still pretty good at making. The big hole in his shooting game is the longer <a href=http://www.alportico.net/page.php?sale=Mens-Gucci-Bracelet>Mens Gucci Bracelet</a>  3-point shots, he doesn鈥檛 have the range for those yet. It鈥檚 possible he didn鈥檛 have the range because of his bad toe, or it could be that he just needs to continue to practice. Maybe  just need to game plan better to get Jimmy the shots he can make.
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Conclusion
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Either way Jimmy should be ok this year and his numbers will improve.
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Okay, so the prognosis isn't too great. Romo is all but certain to decline this year, and very few teams with a QB that has declined make it to playoffs. There is still a little bit of hope, as evidenced by both Rodgers and Brady, if Romo can at least maintain a respectable QBR and the defense maintains its performance from week 1, we could end up with a team that is at least vying for a wildcard spot. If not, however, we could be in for a pretty rough year.
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Revision as of 00:32, 1 October 2014

<Too>good for comments -yfbb] Just looked at Jimmy's shooting stats a little more. I think a lot of the differences in his numbers is based on how he was used. Here is his page from basketball-reference.com: Jimmy focused more on the defensive side last <a href=http://www.avanttravel.com/page.php?sale=Louboutin-Men-Sneakers>Louboutin Men Sneakers</a> year as he became the #1 wing defender. His defensive win shares increased from 2.6 to 4.6, his Drtg improved from 104 to 100. Because of his increased defensive importance, he didn鈥檛 get to crash the boards as much. His offensive rebound % went from 7.2% to 3.9%, and his dunks made went from 45 down to 29. And he spent more time on the wing, maybe so he could get back on D quicker. The <a href=http://www.avanttravel.com/page.php?sale=Tory-Burch-Sample-Sale-Nyc>Tory Burch Sample Sale Nyc</a> percentage of his shots that were 3pts increased from 20.5% to 34.6%. And those extra 3-pointers were from the top, not the corner. His corner 3鈥檚 decreased from 60% of his total 3point shots down to 30%. If you breakdown his shooting percentages into 2-pointers, corner 3鈥檚 and other 3鈥檚 his percentages look like this: 2012-13 .489 (199-407) .365 (23-63) .405 (17-42) 

2013-14 .457 (207-453) .431 (31-72) .220 (37-168)

His 2-point shooting decrease is almost entirely due to not getting easy put backs. The percentage of his 2pt shots that came from 0-3 feet (including dunks) went from 49% to 37%, and those short ones are obviously the highest-percentage shots. Jimmy鈥檚 mid-range shooting percentages actually improved last year. And his 3point shooting percentage decline was due to the relative decrease in corner 3 attempts, which he is still pretty good at making. The big hole in his shooting game is the longer <a href=http://www.alportico.net/page.php?sale=Mens-Gucci-Bracelet>Mens Gucci Bracelet</a> 3-point shots, he doesn鈥檛 have the range for those yet. It鈥檚 possible he didn鈥檛 have the range because of his bad toe, or it could be that he just needs to continue to practice. Maybe just need to game plan better to get Jimmy the shots he can make. Either way Jimmy should be ok this year and his numbers will improve.

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