Difference between revisions of "User:RahalMccall69"
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(Will Romo bounce back- What the data says.) |
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| − | + | A couple notes: the cut-off for a QBR drop that I considered significant was a drop of around 20 points. Some QBs barely missed the <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Outlet-Online-Black-Backpack-Man-Purse-Pink-Perfume.html>Black Gucci Backpack</a> cut-offs (see Roethlisberger), but I decided to include them anyways. Also, Rodgers obviously didn't have a "bad" game week 1, but he did drop his QBR by ~30 points, so I decided to include him as well. | |
| − | + | Let's Take a Closer Look. | |
| − | + | The average change in yearly QBR for these QBs is -11.68 | |
| − | + | This is actually the most disheartening statistic. What this really means is that Romo will probably have a significantly worse season this year, judging by his performance in the first game. None of the QBs who had a significant drop in their first game was able to even get close to their previous year's performance (at least in terms of QBR). | |
| − | + | No QB had a drop as drastic as Romo did | |
| − | + | This kind of builds on the previous point, but Romo had a drop of -35.9 points. In our group of QBs only Rodgers gets close to that, and he was playing with a completely ridiculous 122.5 QBR the previous year. What this means is that the Romo we know and love could be a lot worse than we had hoped this year, maybe one of the worst years yet. This does not bode well for the team. However... | |
| − | + | Out of all the teams with QBs that we able to stay above 80 QBR, only the and had a losing record | |
| − | + | Okay, now we're talking blue kool-aid. Yeah, yeah I know correlation, causation whatever, but the fact remains there's some knowledge to be gained here. This is actually the main reason why <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Belts-Online-Shoes-Handbag-Sale-Women-Watches.html>Gucci Belts Online</a> I think the might not be so bad this year. Looking at the teams that ended badly: Redskins are always a shaky team, especially in these past few years with RG3's knee and all. The Saints in 2012 had a horrible defense that gave up the most yards and second most points. I really doubt Romo's supporting cast this year could be as bad as those two teams. So there's still a little bit of hope for our Cowboys, especially since the 2013 won their division 12-4. Bad news is, none of the teams who had QBs below 80 QBR made it to playoffs. | |
| − | + | Good QBs...stay good | |
| − | + | Again going off the previous point, all 3 of the "elite" (ugh) Quarterbacks who laid an egg their first game still managed a pretty good QBR at the end of the year. Brady, Brees, and Rodgers each were above 87 QBR that year, and also still created a situation for their team to at least have a shot at a winning record. (Though <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Cheap-Gucci-Handbags-Sweatshirt-V-Neck-Backpack.html>Gucci Backpack</a> we already discussed why Brees's 2012 team did not make it) I chose to think Romo is closer to Brees and Brady than he is to RGIII and Michael Vick, so there is reason to think Romo will bounce back better than expected. | |
| − | + | Conclusion | |
| − | + | Okay, so the prognosis isn't too great. Romo is all but certain to decline this year, and very few teams with a QB that has declined make it to playoffs. There is still a little bit of hope, as evidenced by both Rodgers and Brady, if Romo can at least maintain a respectable QBR and the defense maintains its performance from week 1, we could end up with a team that is at least vying for a wildcard spot. If not, however, we could be in for a pretty rough year. | |
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Revision as of 01:27, 1 October 2014
@@@ A couple notes: the cut-off for a QBR drop that I considered significant was a drop of around 20 points. Some QBs barely missed the <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Outlet-Online-Black-Backpack-Man-Purse-Pink-Perfume.html>Black Gucci Backpack</a> cut-offs (see Roethlisberger), but I decided to include them anyways. Also, Rodgers obviously didn't have a "bad" game week 1, but he did drop his QBR by ~30 points, so I decided to include him as well. Let's Take a Closer Look.
The average change in yearly QBR for these QBs is -11.68
This is actually the most disheartening statistic. What this really means is that Romo will probably have a significantly worse season this year, judging by his performance in the first game. None of the QBs who had a significant drop in their first game was able to even get close to their previous year's performance (at least in terms of QBR).
No QB had a drop as drastic as Romo did
This kind of builds on the previous point, but Romo had a drop of -35.9 points. In our group of QBs only Rodgers gets close to that, and he was playing with a completely ridiculous 122.5 QBR the previous year. What this means is that the Romo we know and love could be a lot worse than we had hoped this year, maybe one of the worst years yet. This does not bode well for the team. However...
Out of all the teams with QBs that we able to stay above 80 QBR, only the and had a losing record
Okay, now we're talking blue kool-aid. Yeah, yeah I know correlation, causation whatever, but the fact remains there's some knowledge to be gained here. This is actually the main reason why <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Gucci-Belts-Online-Shoes-Handbag-Sale-Women-Watches.html>Gucci Belts Online</a> I think the might not be so bad this year. Looking at the teams that ended badly: Redskins are always a shaky team, especially in these past few years with RG3's knee and all. The Saints in 2012 had a horrible defense that gave up the most yards and second most points. I really doubt Romo's supporting cast this year could be as bad as those two teams. So there's still a little bit of hope for our Cowboys, especially since the 2013 won their division 12-4. Bad news is, none of the teams who had QBs below 80 QBR made it to playoffs.
Good QBs...stay good
Again going off the previous point, all 3 of the "elite" (ugh) Quarterbacks who laid an egg their first game still managed a pretty good QBR at the end of the year. Brady, Brees, and Rodgers each were above 87 QBR that year, and also still created a situation for their team to at least have a shot at a winning record. (Though <a href=http://www.aec-ist.com/css/Cheap-Gucci-Handbags-Sweatshirt-V-Neck-Backpack.html>Gucci Backpack</a> we already discussed why Brees's 2012 team did not make it) I chose to think Romo is closer to Brees and Brady than he is to RGIII and Michael Vick, so there is reason to think Romo will bounce back better than expected. Conclusion Okay, so the prognosis isn't too great. Romo is all but certain to decline this year, and very few teams with a QB that has declined make it to playoffs. There is still a little bit of hope, as evidenced by both Rodgers and Brady, if Romo can at least maintain a respectable QBR and the defense maintains its performance from week 1, we could end up with a team that is at least vying for a wildcard spot. If not, however, we could be in for a pretty rough year.
